All eight first round series matchups are set ahead of the opening weekend of the 2023 NBA Playoffs.

The following capsules show the matchups along with the Net Rating, Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating for each team. 

Over the 10-year period from 2013 until 2022, the team with the higher Net Rating in the regular season has won their first round matchup 81 percent of the time (65 of 80 series). That number drops to 65 percent in the second round.

1. Milwaukee Bucks vs. 8. Miami Heat

(FiveThiryEight win probability: Celtics, 76 percent)

2. Boston Celtics vs. 7. Atlanta Hawks

(FiveThiryEight win probability: Celtics, 87 percent)

3. Philadelphia 76ers vs. 6. Brooklyn Nets

(FiveThiryEight win probability: Sixers, 89 percent)

4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks

(FiveThiryEight win probability: Cavaliers, 62 percent)

1. Denver Nuggets vs. 8. Minnesota Timberwolves

(FiveThiryEight win probability: Nuggets, 74 percent)

2. Memphis Grizzlies vs. 7. Los Angeles Lakers

(FiveThiryEight win probability: Grizzlies, 56 percent)

3. Sacramento Kings vs. 6. Golden State Warriors

(FiveThiryEight win probability: Warriors, 81 percent)

4. Phoenix Suns vs. 5. Los Angeles Clippers

(FiveThiryEight win probability: Suns, 66 percent)