Earlier in the year, 6-foot-6 guard Nikola Topic was on loan with Serbian talent factory Mega Basket, which helped put Nikola Jokic, Nikola Jovic, Goga Bitadze, Vlatko Cancar, Ivica Zubac and Vasilije Micic in The Association — along with several other players whose rights are owned by NBA franchises. With Mega, Topic averaged 18.6 points, 6.2 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game in 13 Liga ABA games. That stint helped Topic win the ABA League Top Prospect award. However, Topic still felt he had more to prove, so he went back to KK Crvena Zvezda, where he had been prior to going to Mega Basket, to get some Euroleague exposure.

Topic’s decision was an admirable one, but he has had trouble getting himself acclimated in this new situation. And a knee injury — which has since been tweaked — has derailed his season. But Topic is still firmly a top-five prospect in the 2024 NBA Draft, and he just might possess the most upside of any of the on-ball initiators in this class.

When diving into what makes Topic special, you should really skip over his time with Crvena Zvezda. That tape will tell the story of a player that lacks burst, especially in the games played since returning in April. He visibly lacks the first step explosion he showed in the first half of the season. But that should return as he gets further and further away from the injuries, which will happen in the lead-up to the draft. He’ll have time to rest and focus specifically on getting his body right.

In his time with Mega, Topic proved that he is capable of beating defenders off the dribble rather easily. That’s why it’s easy to ignore the second part of the 2023-24 season. Topic is a herky-jerky mover, and the stop-and-start nature of his driving makes him a really tough cover. He’s capable of just quickly going and getting by his defender, which is why his hesitation moves are so dangerous. Of course, the athletes in Serbia aren’t what he’ll see in the NBA. But there’s also going to be better spacing for him in the pros. So, he should be able to continue to do a good job of getting by his man. Topic is also a big, strong guy, so he’s also capable of moving defenders off their spots when he attacks. And the beauty of all of that is that Topic is a tremendous finisher at the basket.

On top of being a great finisher, Topic is also a fantastic playmaker. His assist numbers with Mega back that up, and it’s something NBA teams should be very excited about. Topic is good at finding shooters off a live dribble, and he can make every pass in the book. The 18-year-old is especially good in a pick-and-roll setting. Whether it’s tossing lobs, making pocket passes or manipulating the defense and going in a different direction with the play, Topic is flat-out special as a pick-and-roll decision maker. And his size adds to that, as he can see things other ball handlers simply can’t.

The swing skill for Topic is going to be the jump shot. People have concerns about his defense, and there’s a real possibility that he’ll never be a positive on that end of the floor. But at the very least, Topic’s size will be impactful on that end of the floor. And the reality is that the defense won’t matter all that much if Topic lives up to his offensive potential. That’s why the shot is going to be crucial at the next level.

As of right now, Topic really likes getting to his mid-range jumper. And while he doesn’t hit it as often as you’d like, his willingness to consistently take that shot is a good thing. Topic also lets threes fly when defenses go under on screens. With that in mind, he’s not a player that is turning down shots. He just needs to be a little more consistent from deep, and he probably needs to move his release up a little. Topic currently sports a very low release, and he doesn’t get a lot of arc on his shot. But those things are both fixable, especially for a player with good feel and nice backspin as a shooter.

This isn’t a player with a broken jumper. In fact, Topic shot 36.9% from three in 2022-23, and the number went down to 30.6% on increased volume this season. But Topic shoots in the high 80s from the line. When you combine that with his touch on floaters, there’s no reason not to buy him becoming a good shooter eventually. The shot will also be a main point of emphasis for Topic in the offseason, and it kind of goes hand in hand with him getting his knee right. There’s a lot of weight room and empty-gym sessions in Topic’s future. So, don’t be surprised if the shot looks a lot better the next time you see him in a game.

If Topic becomes an average shooter, especially off the bounce, he can be the type of player that a team builds an entire offense around. There are plenty of differences in the way the two play, but Topic could be worthy of the type of role Tyrese Haliburton has with the Indiana Pacers. Topic doesn’t have the jumper right now, and the flair as a passer isn’t there either. But as long as he can make defenses pay for letting him shoot, the ball should be rolled out to Topic in an offense that is heavy with high screens and pick-and-roll actions. And while players like Alexandre Sarr and Zaccharie Risacher are getting the buzz as the likely first and second picks in the 2024 NBA Draft, it’s Topic that has the potential to drive front offices crazy in the future. His upside is absolutely enormous and teams that pass him on could end up kicking themselves down the road.