How’s that Mike Tyson quote go again? Right. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” What Tyson meant by that (if I venture a guess) is not that plans should be discarded after taking a right hook to the noggin, but that only the strongest are able to maintain a clear vision when they are a little woozy.
Well, the Denver Nuggets, New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder just got punched in the face. Critics and pundits are happy to tell them why they need to make dramatic changes this offseason. If they’re smart, they won’t. Go to your corner, tend to your wounds, and get back in the ring next season.
If you listen to Nuggets GM Calvin Booth, not winning the championship in back-to-back seasons was, in fact, part of the plan.
“I just want dudes that we try to develop, and it’s sustainable,” Booth told The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor last summer. “If it costs us the chance to win a championship this year, so be it. It’s worth the investment. It’s more about winning three out of six, three out of seven, four out of eight than it is about trying to go back-to-back.”
So far, so good, then. Only except that Denver’s young talent didn’t exactly develop at the rate it had hoped. Still, the Nuggets have a vision. They still have the best starting five in the NBA (or second-best if you’re especially high on the Celtics) and maybe what Christian Braun, Payton Watson, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson need is another year of seasoning to be ready for playoff basketball.
Make no mistake, the Nuggets have work to do. Re-signing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a must. They should find a legitimate backup center. Another veteran bench piece could help as insurance. Eventually, they may have to consider trading one of their high-priced starters – specifically Michael Porter Jr. – to create some financial flexibility. But there is no reason for panic just yet.
Meanwhile, the Thunder are at a very different place in their life cycle. They won 17 more games this season than in 2022-23, surging to the No. 1 seed behind MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Rookie of the Year runner-up Chet Holmgren, Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault and the rapidly-developing Jalen Williams. They have $33 million in cap room and the means to make a landmark addition.
Of course they should explore what they could get in free agency and in trades. Now is the time to cash in on the bajillion first-round picks they are owed over the next several years. But what the Thunder should not do is overreact to allowing the Mavericks to rebound a third of their misses or giving up 16.2 second-chance points per game in the second round and dramatically shift the vision of the team.
While some have proposed that the Thunder should target high-priced big men like Jarrett Allen or Clint Capela, the Thunder succeeded by spacing the floor and creating driving lanes for Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams. Throwing a traditional big man into the lane will close those runways and force the Thunder – not an especially willing 3-point shooting team – to play too much in the mid-range.
Go get a big, for sure. Add some optionality to the roster. But do it sensibly, on the cheap. A mid-level exception or smaller contract for a player who doesn’t expect to play major minutes or close games.
The Thunder finished the regular season 27th in defensive rebounding rate. That’s bad. But they don’t need to be an elite rebounding team because they are elite at some many other things. If they can get somewhere closer to league average, that will go a long way in minimizing their exposure. Effort and scheme alone can account for some of that.
Then there’s the Knicks. League sources told The Athletic’s Fred Katz that the Knicks are “Still targeting the upcoming summer as the time to trade for the next big name.”
That’s fine – as long as that big name is a good fit with Jalen Brunson. That wouldn’t necessarily be deviating from the plan. Since signing Brunson, New York has added players who complement his game, like Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein. (They also need to re-sign Anunoby and Hartenstein.)
Acquiring that perfect star who fits with Brunson is difficult and the Knicks are on the clock. Julius Randle – the most obvious spot for an upgrade – can become a free agent in 2025 and Brunson will be eligible for an extension this summer. As Katz wrote, “Financially, and with the current collective bargaining agreement, this summer is the time for a star trade.”
But that doesn’t mean the Knicks should get desperate, either. If the ideal star isn’t out there, it’s okay to wait until next February’s trade deadline to see who shakes loose (like Anunoby did this past season) rather than risk disrupting something that clearly works.
From the outside, patience is easy to preach but dramatic changes are even easier to demand. It’s up to these organizations to take a step back, revisit their respective plans and get back to doing what makes them special.